Most people, including many AI experts, struggle to grasp (if they're even aware of it) the increasingly dominant view emerging in the epicenter of AI development in San Francisco and Silicon Valley: that extreme developments (on a scale surpassing even the Industrial Revolution) may well occur within the present decade. It is therefore entirely reasonable that there's growing demand for concrete scenarios describing what might happen. For almost exactly ten months, from early June 2024 onward, my go-to reference for such scenarios was Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness.
As of today, however, I recommend instead the brand-new AI 2027, by Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland and Romeo Dean. The report is an ambitious, detailed, remarkably competent and highly readable account of where things may be headed over the next few years. I commend the authors for putting in the considerable amount of work needed to produce the report, and I share their hope that the report will stimulate others in the AI sphere to react to it, for instance by challenging the various assumptions underlying the suggested scenario, or by proposing alternative scenarios.
Anyone with an interest in societal issues and a desire to ground their discussions in a realistic situational assessment is warmly encouraged to read it. In addition to the report itself, there is a highly informative three-hour podcast episode where Dwarkesh Patel interviews the first two authors, plus a short blog post by Scott Alexander introducing the project.
[Edit, April 9: Here are Scott Alexander's personal takeways from the project. Here and here are two relevant blog posts by Zwi Mowshowitz: the first is a detailed reading of the aforementioned podcast discussion, and the second is his summary of various people's initial reactions to the report, on Twitter and elsewhere. All of this is well worth reading, and I am certain a lot more will follow.]
Inga kommentarer:
Skicka en kommentar